May 19 2011

Don’t be a turkey: no evidence is NOT evidence

Are you open to the possibility that what you think you see isn’t what’s really happening?

I finished reading The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb a while ago. I purchased it because I was intrigued by the phrase “the impact of the highly improbable” on the front cover. This book takes pot shots at our assumptive blindness, offering dry humor, deep and rigorous thinking, provocative insights, and historical perspective.

The content that interests me the most is what Taleb calls “the triplet of opacity”:

1. “The illusion of understanding” in a world more complex than we believe;

2. “The retrospective distortion” that occurs as we try to make sense of the past; and

3. Overvaluing factual information and pre-determined categories created by experts.

Early in the book, he makes the distinction between “no evidence of disease” and “evidence of no disease.” You might have no evidence that you have cancer but that’s not the same as evidence of no cancer.

Thinking that they are the same can cost you your life. Taleb illustrates this with a story about the first thousand days in the life of a turkey. For a thousand days, until the day before Thanksgiving, this turkey has unfailing evidence that humans are here to feed it and do no harm. There is abundant evidence of good will and no evidence of harm. Yet, when you enjoy your Thanksgiving dinner, you know that’s not the same to the turkey as evidence of no harm.

Consider this at the organizational level: no evidence of development is not the same as evidence of no development. No evidence of development could lead you to give up on some people; however, I often see people developing in work situations where others don’t. Your lack of evidence confirms nothing. Don’t give up. On the other hand, evidence that your organization is making slow progress in changing its culture is not evidence that it won’t all suddenly come crashing down.

Don’t be a turkey. Stay open to the possibility that what you think you see is not what’s really happening. Don’t put too much faith in your smart explanations. The past is just prologue — until it isn’t. Stay skeptical, stay nimble, and keep experimenting around the edges.

Photo: iStock